A bruising presidential election and a tightening labor market are prompting reservations about future spending for nonresidential building, even as the construction industry’s performance has staved off most gloom-and-doom scenarios.
Total spending for nonresidential building was up nearly 11%, to $103.3 billion, in the first quarter. The Census Bureau estimated that the value of nonresidential building put in place rose 3.1% in April compared to April 2015, to an annualized $461.8 billion, spurred by robust building of hotels, offices, and entertainment/amusement centers.
TOP CONTRACTOR GIANTS
2015 GC Revenue ($)
1. Turner Construction Co. $10,566,643,175
2. Whiting-Turner Contracting Co. $5,530,003,229
3. Fluor Corp. $5,048,920,000
4. Skanska USA $4,887,571,264
5. Gilbane Building Co. $4,406,057,000
6. PCL Construction Enterprises $4,344,294,460
7. Balfour Beatty US $3,955,770,283
8. Structure Tone $3,865,600,000
9. AECOM $3,772,057,000
10. DPR Construction $3,085,975,000
TOP CM/PM GIANTS
2015 CM/PM Revenue ($)
1. Hill International $503,000,000
2. Jacobs $460,670,000
3. JLL $328,233,760
4. Hunter Roberts Construction Group $259,724,915
5. AECOM $256,933,000
6. Burns & McDonnell $255,390,861
7. WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff $173,063,000
8. Turner Construction Co. $161,788,824
9. Sachse Construction $109,836,555
10. Cumming $96,538,000
CONSTRUCTION GIANTS SPONSORED BY:
“The construction sector is likely to be the economic tailwind” in the U.S., predicts Kermit Baker, PhD, Chief Economist with the American Institute of Architects.
Baker and chief economists Ken Simonson of the Associated General Contractors of America and Alex Carrick of CMD Construction Data expect nonresidential construction spending to increase 9–10% this year and 4–8% in 2017. More than one-third of AGC’s membership expects there will be more work to bid on this year than last year, particularly in the retail, warehouse, lodging, and office sectors.
The trio of economists raised a number of red flags about factors that could slow construction spending. “Market fundamentals remain positive, but are fading in most sectors,” said Baker.
Carrick and Simonson are less sanguine about spending for education-related projects, mainly because growth figures for 4- to 17-year-olds and 18- to 26-year-olds are either flat lining or receding.
Simonson noted that recent legislation passed by Congress extends tax credits and allows for more federal dollars to flow into construction. But the federal government is reducing its overall physical footprint, so it’s more likely to renovate existing buildings than build new.
Multifamily housing, which has been one of the construction industry’s high-powered turbines—it’s up 30% since 2009, according to Baker—is expected to taper off to a still-strong but normalized range of 410,000–440,000 units per year.
Simonson also pointed out that the U.S. population has been growing at less than 1% annually, and that several states have lost population. Immigration, which has pushed population growth over the past few decades, has lost traction. The factors could lead to less mobility and less demand for new construction.
HELLO!!! ARE THERE ANY CARPENTERS OUT THERE?
Another area of concern for contractors is finding the skilled labor they need to complete projects they bid for.
The country’s unemployment rate stood at 4.7% in May, and was down in 269 of 387 metros, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates. Carrick noted that the labor participation rate (the labor force as a percentage of the working-age population) fell to 62.5% in Q1/2016, from 67% in 2001.
Citing a recent survey of 1,300 AGC-member companies, Simonson said that 79% are having difficulty finding hourly craft professionals, and 73% struggle to hire carpenters. More than half (56%) said they have raised their base pay for hourly workers; 29% provide incentives and bonuses.
None of the economists anticipates a recession rearing its head any time soon. “I think there’s too much negative talk about the economy,” said Carrick. What does worry him are the sluggish energy sector and economic slowdowns outside the U.S., specifically China.
As for the presidential race, AGC’s Simonson lamented that it might not make much difference who wins. “I expect continued gridlock,” he says. “Uncertainty will cause companies to hold back on major investments.”
More on the 2016 Construction Giants: BD+C's John Caulfield examines how Turner uses to design-build, P3, Lean practices, and engineering services.
RETURN TO THE GIANTS 300 LANDING PAGE
Related Stories
Retail Centers | May 3, 2024
Outside Las Vegas, two unused office buildings will be turned into an open-air retail development
In Henderson, Nev., a city roughly 15 miles southeast of Las Vegas, 100,000 sf of unused office space will be turned into an open-air retail development called The Cliff. The $30 million adaptive reuse development will convert the site’s two office buildings into a destination for retail stores, chef-driven restaurants, and community entertainment.
Codes and Standards | May 3, 2024
New York City considering bill to prevent building collapses
The New York City Council is considering a proposed law with the goal of preventing building collapses. The Billingsley Structural Integrity Act is a response to the collapse of 1915 Billingsley Terrace in the Bronx last December.
Student Housing | May 3, 2024
Student housing construction dips in the first quarter of 2024
Investment in college dorms dipped slightly in the first quarter of 2024, but remains higher than a year ago.
Contractors | May 1, 2024
Nonresidential construction spending rises 0.2% in March 2024 to $1.19 trillion
National nonresidential construction spending increased 0.2% in March, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $1.19 trillion.
K-12 Schools | Apr 30, 2024
Fully electric Oregon elementary school aims for resilience with microgrid design
The River Grove Elementary School in Oregon was designed for net-zero carbon and resiliency to seismic events, storms, and wildfire. The roughly 82,000-sf school in a Portland suburb will feature a microgrid—a small-scale power grid that operates independently from the area’s electric grid.
AEC Tech | Apr 30, 2024
Lack of organizational readiness is biggest hurdle to artificial intelligence adoption
Managers of companies in the industrial sector, including construction, have bought the hype of artificial intelligence (AI) as a transformative technology, but their organizations are not ready to realize its promise, according to research from IFS, a global cloud enterprise software company. An IFS survey of 1,700 senior decision-makers found that 84% of executives anticipate massive organizational benefits from AI.
Codes and Standards | Apr 30, 2024
Updated document details methods of testing fenestration for exterior walls
The Fenestration and Glazing Industry Alliance (FGIA) updated a document serving a recommended practice for determining test methodology for laboratory and field testing of exterior wall systems. The document pertains to products covered by an AAMA standard such as curtain walls, storefronts, window walls, and sloped glazing. AAMA 501-24, Methods of Test for Exterior Walls was last updated in 2015.
MFPRO+ News | Apr 29, 2024
World’s largest 3D printer could create entire neighborhoods
The University of Maine recently unveiled the world’s largest 3D printer said to be able to create entire neighborhoods. The machine is four times larger than a preceding model that was first tested in 2019. The older model was used to create a 600 sf single-family home made of recyclable wood fiber and bio-resin materials.
AEC Innovators | Apr 26, 2024
National Institute of Building Sciences announces Building Innovation 2024 schedule
The National Institute of Building Sciences is hosting its annual Building Innovation conference, May 22-24 at the Capital Hilton in Washington, D.C. BI2024 brings together everyone who impacts the built environment: government agencies, contractors, the private sector, architects, scientists, and more.
Contractors | Apr 26, 2024
AGC releases decarbonization playbook to help assess, track, reduce GHG emissions
The Associated General Contractors of America released a new, first-of-its-kind, decarbonization playbook designed to help firms assess, track, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions on projects. The AGC Playbook on Decarbonization and Carbon Reporting in the Construction Industry is part of the association’s efforts to make sure construction firms play a leading role in crafting carbon-reduction measures for the industry.
